What are Joshua's chances against Usyk?

Simon Wells
Authored by Simon Wells
Posted: Monday, August 15, 2022 - 12:58

Joshua is not the favourite - and this is to his advantage

Almost a year after his sensational victory, Alexander Usyk will try to defend his title of the outright world champion in the heavyweight category. British bookmakers already rate the rematch against Anthony Joshua in the mirror. You can watch odds on officialbookmakers.com website, where is the current ratings of betting companies as of August 2022.

Remember the odds lines from a year ago, before the first championship fight. At that time Joshua was considered the favourite. And even the power rankings were almost identical to the current ones, but with mirror positions of the boxers. In 2022 the Ukrainian is approaching the rematch in the best position, analysts say. Although in Great Britain itself we can hear more and more positive reviews of Anthony's training camp. And this suggests epochal significance of the upcoming event in the world of boxing and even its historical character.      

Let us now analyze the factors, which can give Anthony Joshua an advantage in the August 20th fight.

Factor 1 - new team

After the defeat, the Briton changed his team members. Angel Fernandez and Robert Garcia are now working with Anthony Joshua. Both have the highest experience of big wins, as well as something the previous coaching staff could not boast. It's about aggression, which is the catalyst for healthy sporting competition and even anger. In the pursuit of victory these are important components, especially when it comes to such a dangerous and versatile opponent as Alexander Usyk.

According to experts in the boxing world, Fernandez has charisma, enthusiasm and experience, although he is still young enough to spar directly with his opponent. This is important, because it allows him to simulate the conditions for a championship fight within the training camp. The same can be said about Robert Garcia, who just yesterday was entering the ring himself and has not forgotten the feeling. Therefore, both mentors are well aware of the current state of their mentee, above all mentally.   

Factor 2 - length of preparation

In a piece for Sky Sports, 2020 Olympic bronze medallist Frazer Clarke noted that he himself does not know how long Joshua's camp was in the run-up to his fight with Usyk in Jeddah. He believes it must have been at least 14 weeks spent by the challenger on the territory of Great Britain only. The expert won't speak about duration of preparation in Saudi Arabia because he doesn't know the exact terms.  

How has Anthony Joshua changed?

What Clarke also points out is that Joshua's character has changed. Apparently, he has been hurt by the fact that he has not been able to adjust to the new conditions and change his boxing style after losing his previous fights. Anthony was losing more and more often because of his archaic nature. Now he is a very angry and aggressive fighter, who has also seriously improved his ability to adapt to the new challenges during the course of the fight. At least in sparring the metamorphosis was noticeable and eye-catching.

Factor 3 - lack of serious expectations

As we mentioned above, bookmakers are not expecting much from Anthony Joshua in the rematch, relying on the experience of his previous failures. The British jock is not the kind of fighter who could successfully cope with challenges before, analysts are not ready to give high marks to his will to win in 2022 either. On the other hand, it is the lack of the usual pressure that may play into Anthony's hands.

Let’s say some words about Usyk, namely his expectations from him. In fact, Alexander has now put everything on the line. There is a war going on in Ukraine against the external aggressor, Russia. The boxer himself, the world champion, having received a fee for the fight in Jeddah, has bought the rights to the broadcast, in order to make access free for all compatriots. And the presence of championship belts, which must be defended, also contributes to an increased moral burden. How Usyk will cope with all this remains to be seen.  

 

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